(2815 A.D.)
A
synopsis about intelligent extraterrestrial life
How our place in the universe might influence others
How our place in the universe might influence others
Introduction
Over
the world hundreds of people wonder daily about intelligent
extraterrestrial life. Hollywood has made many films about it and
many scientists have wondered and seriously contemplated the
existence of life beyond this planet. In this short piece I will give
a synopsis about arguments and focus on the image we as a species
project into space.
Drake equation
A well known argumentation is the drake equation. This equation estimates the likelihood of finding an intelligent life-form in a specific galaxy. Over the years the parameters of this have changed and it is now concluded that the amount of intelligent civilizations that exist is singular. One exist, maybe one more. To put this number into perspective, the universe is aged about 13,8 million years old. That is the entire reality that exists is only 13,8 billion years old. The age of the average star is around a billion years old. And our planet is 4,5 billion years old. In other words it took a third of the age of the universe to arrive at the anthropocene. This is an incredible long time, even on a evolutionary time scale. As life has been around for about 3,5 billion years. And this is an important realisation. Life appears frequent. And as water is probably the most common molecule in the universe. The conditions for life, from a molecular point of view are favourable. As long as there is no astronomical reason for the destruction of life. But mind you, multi-cellular life is only about 2 billion years old. It took about a tenth of the age of a universe for multi-cellular life to develop. Life is abundant, multi-cellular is rare, and intelligent life, well lets just say that the odds are against it.
Fermi Paradox
Fermi once asked during a lunch, which is one of the best way to make scientific breakthroughs, questions about the drake equation. His question was simple, if life is out there, where are they? Even if any civilization would reach the same technological level as we have achieved so far. And they would do this somewhere in this galaxy, but only a hundred thousand years sooner. Which isn't unreasonable when we take it in respect to the age of the earth. Then their legacy should be everywhere! But it isn't. We don't see any probes, do not receive any radio signals and most certainly not any aliens.
Maybe they've destroyed themselves, or got stuck in a technological singularity. Maybe they haven't developed themselves yet. But for the sake of statistics, we will address the simplest of answers, they aren't there. Whether or not they were or will isn't that matter. Currently on an astronomical time-scale we are alone, and most likely will remain to do so for a few thousand years at least.
Hawking
Stephen Hawking made another simple statement. That, maybe we shouldn't want to meet them. There is two possibilities; either they are less advanced then us. Which means we will find them before they find us. Or they are more advanced. If they are more advanced we only need to look at ourself what we do with species that seem less developed then we. We either turn them into pets, or enslave them, use them as consumption or just scare them off to use their lands. And that my fellow humans is us. Why would we assume that another advanced civilization isn't going to do the same? Well, maybe they are just curious, but then they are at least only slightly more advanced. Just so that they explore. Luckily we as humans are very curious, who knows maybe we get in luck.
Our astronomic projection.
But for now let's stick to simple facts. How could we be found? Well there is two ways, from stationary observations or from some sort of spacecraft. The latter seems difficult, unless one holds a massive infrastructure, it is very costly business to simply send crafts to distant planets which take a lot of time to get to there. And probably it will not be done, unless you know there is something interesting to discover. So most likely observation of an alien race will be done from a distant stationary observation array of some sort. Like we do with SETI. As visible light will dwarf in respect to the light emitted by the star. This however leaves the entire spectrum that doesn't damage oxygen-hydrogen bonds left for communication.
So what do we send out? Well first powerful radio emissions were around the 1920's. Which means that if we can be found, we can be found at a distance of at best around 90 light years in distance. This is rough estimate about 8000 stars that could receive our signal. In about 50000 years the entire milky way will know our presence. And what will they see? They will see our history pass them by. And if they have been watching long enough, they will see us for who we are. This leaves us just one simple question yet to answer; How would you react if you were an intelligent life-form, and you were to brush over our history of only the past 90 years?
Personally, I'd be scared shit, or at least pretty worried.
Conclusion
Simple, we are most likely alone in the milky way. Have millions of habitable planets to look after. And if they do see us, they probably view as racial-centric lifeforms who seeks out to destroy everything that isn't themselves. Either way, it might not be a bad idea to set an example of ourselves.
Drake equation
A well known argumentation is the drake equation. This equation estimates the likelihood of finding an intelligent life-form in a specific galaxy. Over the years the parameters of this have changed and it is now concluded that the amount of intelligent civilizations that exist is singular. One exist, maybe one more. To put this number into perspective, the universe is aged about 13,8 million years old. That is the entire reality that exists is only 13,8 billion years old. The age of the average star is around a billion years old. And our planet is 4,5 billion years old. In other words it took a third of the age of the universe to arrive at the anthropocene. This is an incredible long time, even on a evolutionary time scale. As life has been around for about 3,5 billion years. And this is an important realisation. Life appears frequent. And as water is probably the most common molecule in the universe. The conditions for life, from a molecular point of view are favourable. As long as there is no astronomical reason for the destruction of life. But mind you, multi-cellular life is only about 2 billion years old. It took about a tenth of the age of a universe for multi-cellular life to develop. Life is abundant, multi-cellular is rare, and intelligent life, well lets just say that the odds are against it.
Fermi Paradox
Fermi once asked during a lunch, which is one of the best way to make scientific breakthroughs, questions about the drake equation. His question was simple, if life is out there, where are they? Even if any civilization would reach the same technological level as we have achieved so far. And they would do this somewhere in this galaxy, but only a hundred thousand years sooner. Which isn't unreasonable when we take it in respect to the age of the earth. Then their legacy should be everywhere! But it isn't. We don't see any probes, do not receive any radio signals and most certainly not any aliens.
Maybe they've destroyed themselves, or got stuck in a technological singularity. Maybe they haven't developed themselves yet. But for the sake of statistics, we will address the simplest of answers, they aren't there. Whether or not they were or will isn't that matter. Currently on an astronomical time-scale we are alone, and most likely will remain to do so for a few thousand years at least.
Hawking
Stephen Hawking made another simple statement. That, maybe we shouldn't want to meet them. There is two possibilities; either they are less advanced then us. Which means we will find them before they find us. Or they are more advanced. If they are more advanced we only need to look at ourself what we do with species that seem less developed then we. We either turn them into pets, or enslave them, use them as consumption or just scare them off to use their lands. And that my fellow humans is us. Why would we assume that another advanced civilization isn't going to do the same? Well, maybe they are just curious, but then they are at least only slightly more advanced. Just so that they explore. Luckily we as humans are very curious, who knows maybe we get in luck.
Our astronomic projection.
But for now let's stick to simple facts. How could we be found? Well there is two ways, from stationary observations or from some sort of spacecraft. The latter seems difficult, unless one holds a massive infrastructure, it is very costly business to simply send crafts to distant planets which take a lot of time to get to there. And probably it will not be done, unless you know there is something interesting to discover. So most likely observation of an alien race will be done from a distant stationary observation array of some sort. Like we do with SETI. As visible light will dwarf in respect to the light emitted by the star. This however leaves the entire spectrum that doesn't damage oxygen-hydrogen bonds left for communication.
So what do we send out? Well first powerful radio emissions were around the 1920's. Which means that if we can be found, we can be found at a distance of at best around 90 light years in distance. This is rough estimate about 8000 stars that could receive our signal. In about 50000 years the entire milky way will know our presence. And what will they see? They will see our history pass them by. And if they have been watching long enough, they will see us for who we are. This leaves us just one simple question yet to answer; How would you react if you were an intelligent life-form, and you were to brush over our history of only the past 90 years?
Personally, I'd be scared shit, or at least pretty worried.
Conclusion
Simple, we are most likely alone in the milky way. Have millions of habitable planets to look after. And if they do see us, they probably view as racial-centric lifeforms who seeks out to destroy everything that isn't themselves. Either way, it might not be a bad idea to set an example of ourselves.
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